208
FXUS62 KCAE 140615
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN NEAR TO BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONT.
- 2. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE UPSTATE AS OF WRITING
THIS AND IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE FA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. A ROUGE SHOWER WAS SEEN NEAR NORTHERN LANCASTER
COUNTY, BUT CHANCES FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE COMING
1-3 HOURS IS LOW. DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE LOWER 40S ARE ALREADY
SEEN PUSHING INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT
TOWARD THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ENSUES. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING
IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
DOWNSLOPING WINDS, BOTH OF WHICH MAKE CONDITIONS CONDUCIVE FOR
SURFACE DEW POINTS TO DRY OUT MORE AGGRESSIVELY THAN SHOWN IN
RECENT BLENDED GUIDANCE. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN
MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AT OR BELOW CRITICAL VALUES
(AROUND 20-25%). ALSO, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MIXING IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH, WHERE A COUPLE ISOLATED GUSTS TO 25
MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THIS COMBINATION OF NEAR TO BELOW
CRITICAL RH, DRY FINE FUELS FROM LACK OF RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND ELEVATED WINDS, WILL BRING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. LUCKILY, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER
PRODUCTS. NEAR CRITICAL RH VALUES ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY, BUT
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN FURTHER BY THIS POINT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MINIMAL CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SEEN THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK ACROSS ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER GUIDANCE. THE UPPER
TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY EARLY FRIDAY, WITH STRONG RIDGING WORKING IN THIS
WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE WILL LIKELY AID IN STRENGTHENING A BERMUDA
HIGH, BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE FA. THERE REMAINS
FAIRLY SOLID AGREEMENT ACROSS EACH OF THE LREF CLUSTER MEANS
THAT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND SHOULD GRADUALLY REACH TOWARD THE
LOWER 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
LOWER 90S INTO NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
CENTRAL US, FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WITH ITS APEX
IN THE NORTHEAST NEARING 1-1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL
IN BOTH THE RECENT EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SOLUTIONS. BOTH OF THESE
ENSEMBLES AND THEIR INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS INDICATE THAT PWAT'S
SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE ABOVE 1" SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ENSUES,
BRINGING SEASONABLE INSTABILITY TO THE REGION. THIS MAY AID IN
BRINGING A BIT OF A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN WITH DIURNAL RAIN
CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A BIT
MORE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK IN TERMS OF THE
PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS AND THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING TO AROUND 5
KTS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH 08Z. THE FRONT SHOULD BE COMING
THROUGH DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONT. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF MVFR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT THE USUAL
LOCATION OF KAGS, RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED ONCE THE FRONT
AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
BY 12Z, WINDS WILL HAVE TURNED MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE UP TO 10 KTS. ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA AND BETTER MIXING BEGINS, WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN BE BETWEEN
10-15 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS BECOMING POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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