698
FXUS62 KCAE 141801
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
201 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN NEAR TO BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR FRIDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
- 2. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLIER THIS
MORNING, DEWPOINTS HAVE STEADILY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 40S AS
DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION. THIS WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS WELL WITH CURRENT
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIPPING CLOSE TO CRITICAL VALUES
(25-30%). WINDS RIGHT NOW HAVE OCCASIONALLY GUSTED NEAR 20 MPH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENED BEHIND THE FRONT AND PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING HAS OCCURRED. FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL
BEING TO DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND SHOULDN'T BE AS HIGH
FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY OR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE
COMBINATION OF NEAR TO BELOW CRITICAL RH VALUES, DRY FINE FUELS
FROM LACK OF RAINFALL, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND GUSTY
WINDS, WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/CONCERNS INTO
THE WEEKEND. LUCKILY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
THRESHOLDS FOR ANY FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
STRONG UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND, PROMOTING A WARMING AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY PATTERN
ACROSS THE FA. THE RIDGE WILL LIKELY AID IN STRENGTHENING A
BERMUDA HIGH WITH SOLID AGREEMENT THAT A WARMING TREND ENSUES
WITH RISING UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH MANY LOCATIONS GRADUALLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL US FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE
OVERHEAD. FORTUNATELY, MOISTURE LEVELS SHOULDN'T BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT MAX HEAT INDICES MUCH HIGHER THAN AIR TEMPS. IN BOTH
THE RECENT EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS SOLUTIONS, AS WELL AS THEIR
INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS, PWAT'S SHOULD GRADUALLY RAISE ABOVE 1"
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVECTION ENSUES, BRINGING SEASONABLE INSTABILITY TO
THE REGION. THIS MAY AID IN BRINGING A BIT OF A SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY HEADING INTO THE MID WEEK
IN TERMS OF THE PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
AND THE RIDGE OVERHEAD.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE....
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST WITH PERIODIC GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE. SCATTERED
CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA BUT
WILL NOT RESULT IN RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, CONTINUING INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...7
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