262
FXUS62 KCAE 151755
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATING VERBIAGE IN KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 18Z
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TEMPERATURES
ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES,
FALLING INTO THE MID-50S TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY
BEGIN TO CHANGE AND RESEMBLE OUR TYPICAL LATE SPRING WARM UP AS
WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DIG AND OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL US OVER THE COMING
DAYS, AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN US.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HEIGHTS QUICKLY RISING TO ~588DM, WHICH
IS 90-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COINCIDING WITH
THIS IS AN EXPECTED INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AS OUR
SURFACE HIGH FROM TODAY SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
BERMUDA HIGH. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF SHOT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION IN
THE CSRA ON SUNDAY, CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR LOW UNTIL THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK (AT THE EARLIEST). GUIDANCE ACROSS THE BOARD
CONTINUES TO SHOW HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 95-98TH PERCENTILE
MON-TUES. HIGHS SUN- WED ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOW-MID 90S
EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR EAST & PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW, SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN LATELY
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY YIELD HIGH PRECIP CHANCES. A FRONT IS
FORECAST TO APPROACH BUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASING AS A RESULT. OVERALL,
THOUGH, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ITEM OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST DURING THE TAF PERIOD....
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR, WITH SOME CIRRIFORM
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOW-END
FOG CHANCES IN THE CSRA LATE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE AUGUSTA AREA TAFS. WINDS ON SATURDAY
WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND CONTINUED LIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG OR STRATUS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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