049
FXUS62 KCAE 161051
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH LIMITED WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. WE WILL BEGIN REALLY WARMING UP TODAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST & UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO
AMPLIFY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING & THE SURFACE HIGH BEING TO OUR EAST.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR DEWPOINTS TO BUMP UP INTO THE LOW AND
MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE INTERESTING NUGGET
WITHIN THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
COINCIDING WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY ROBUST CAPE (HREF MEAN SUGGESTS
1500-2000 J/KG). THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA CLOSER TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION GRADUALLY OVER
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS SO THAT MAY CONTINUE. BEYOND THAT, THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS ARE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FEATURE.
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND
BRINGS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFFSHORE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
CALM FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER. THE FOG THREAT AT AGS HAS GENERALLY
DIMINISHED FOR THIS MORNING. WINDSPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CU MAY POTENTIALLY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT NO CIG RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. CONTINUED LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AND GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FOG AND/OR STRATUS AND POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY SUNDAY AND
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WHICH MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING FOG
OR STRATUS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MID WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...EC
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