845
FXUS62 KCAE 161657
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1257 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO KEY MESSAGE 1, MAINLY TO HIGHLIGHT THUNDER
CHANCES ON SUNDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH LIMITED WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK TO REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES TODAY COURTESY OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING TO THE EAST. A DEEP TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO AMPLIFY THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING & THE
SURFACE HIGH BEING TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR
DEWPOINTS TO BUMP UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE INTERESTING NUGGET WITHIN THIS FORECAST IS THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GUIDANCE
SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH COINCIDING WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY
ROBUST CAPE (HREF MEAN SUGGESTS 1500-2000 J/KG). THE GREATEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA CLOSER
TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW CONVECTION REACHING INTO THE CSRA, SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY FOR OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. BEYOND
THAT, THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS ARE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER
FEATURE. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW MOVING FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY/FRIDAY
AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW STATUS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT....
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE AROUND DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE. CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD CONSIST OF
PASSING CIRRIFORM CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS WITH NO CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS TO DEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY AT
CAE/CUB/OGB WHICH HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEEING BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS. WHILE A 20-25 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET FAVORS LOW
CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY AT THE
TYPICALLY FOG PRONE OGB AND AGS. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY
BURN OFF SUNDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
NEAR AGS/DNL LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, INCREASED MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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