242
FXUS62 KCAE 162352
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
752 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GET INTO
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS
WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE TO END
OF NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS,
WITH LIMITED WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED UNTIL THURSDAY OR FRIDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. A DEEP TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WHICH WILL ONLY HELP TO AMPLIFY
THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE
COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING & THE SURFACE HIGH BEING TO OUR EAST.
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER THAN IT HAS BEEN AS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW ALLOWS FOR DEWPOINTS TO BUMP UP INTO THE
LOW AND MID 60S FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. ONE INTERESTING
NUGGET WITHIN THIS FORECAST IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH COINCIDING WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, IN ADDITION TO FAIRLY ROBUST CAPE (HREF MEAN SUGGESTS
1500-2000 J/KG). THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL GA CLOSER TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CONVECTION REACHING INTO THE
CSRA, SO MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER, MAINLY FOR OUR
GEORGIA COUNTIES. BEYOND THAT, THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPS ARE
THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FEATURE. TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A SLOW MOVING FRONT
ARRIVES THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW STRATUS
POSSIBLE AROUND DAYBREAK.
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STARTING TO STREAM OVER THE AREA AS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE.
EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AT AGS/DNL/AIK FOR
THESE LOW CEILINGS. HOWEVER, SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE AT AGS NEAR
DAYBREAK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING SOUTHERLY AFTER ABOUT 13Z, INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW RISK OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
NEAR AGS/DNL LATE SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, INCREASED MOISTURE MAY
RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23
AVIATION...29
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