469
FXUS62 KCAE 171420
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1020 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 2 TO REFLECT INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- 2. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A PATTERN
SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE AND KEEPS OUR
WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN. UPPER TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL FORCE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
RESPONSE, INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL ALSO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A
PATTERN SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
14Z UPDATE: POPS WERE INCREASED SOUTH AND WEST OF I-26 THIS
MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. SPC HAS A MARGINAL (1/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES AS
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
PERHAPS MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN TODAY WILL
BE SOUTH AND WEST OF AUGUSTA BUT EVERYONE IN THE CSRA SHOULD
REMAIN WEATHER AWARE TODAY, ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR
PLANS.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION: RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER END
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE CAVEAT REMAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HI- RES GUIDANCE SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ENCROACHING ON THE CSRA; MAINLY OUR GA COUNTIES. THIS THREAT
STILL APPEARS TO BE LOW, WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOWING
AT LEAST A SLIVER OF CAPPING BETWEEN H85 AND H7. THAT SAID, ANY
PARCELS THAT ARE ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH CAP WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW STORM
MOTIONS, AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS DCAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1200 J/KG. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. MONDAY,
TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY THEN REMAIN RAIN-FREE, BEFORE WE
TURN OUR ATTENTION TO A SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH MAY ARRIVE LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH BETTER MOISTURE (PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.5" AD 1.8") AND A COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY
BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LASTING THURSDAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF POSSIBLE STRATUS AROUND DAYBREAK.
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH MOISTURE ALREADY INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
ADVECTION, SOME STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AND SHOULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS AT THE TERMINALS WITH SOME CIG RESTRICTIONS. A 20-25 KNOT
LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP ANY VSBY RESTRICTIONS MINIMAL. CIGS RETURN
BACK TO VFR MID TO LATER MORNING, AND SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 14Z UP TO 07-10 KNOTS BY 17Z. SOME
AFTERNOON CU ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG HEATING, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE BACK TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/EC
AVIATION...23
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