619
FXUS62 KCAE 171757
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 2 TO REFLECT RECENT TRENDS
IN THE GUIDANCE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- 2. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A PATTERN
SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE AND KEEPS OUR
WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN. UPPER TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL FORCE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
RESPONSE, INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL ALSO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A
PATTERN SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SCATTERED CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT ONGOING TO THE SOUTH
OVER SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA. A TONGUE OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA WITH
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.4 INCHES WEST OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE
PRIMARY FAILURE MODE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO BE A CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE REGION, WHICH MAY RESTRICT
DEVELOPMENT TO OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THOMSON
TO MIDVILLE IN GEORGIA. SHOULD ANY ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOP,
THERE IS SUFFICIENT DCAPE IN PLACE THAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. BECAUSE OUR FREEZING LEVEL IS OVER
14000 FEET, ANY HAIL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND THERE
IS A NEAR ZERO TORNADO THREAT.
AFTER TODAY, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS LOW MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND
MOST OF WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SLOW MOVING FRONT
WHICH MAY ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH
BETTER MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5" AND 1.8"), AND A
COUPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
LASTING THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS ARE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 4- 8 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT SHIFT IN
GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY BETWEEN
20Z-00Z. MORE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED ISOLATED STORMS NEARING
AGS/DNL LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN IF
THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO A LINGERING CAP ALOFT FROM THE
RIDGE IN PLACE. DUE TO THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE, HAVE ADDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR AGS/DNL. IT IS POSSIBLE ANY STORMS EXTENDED
FURTHER EAST, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. TONIGHT, PASSING
CIRRUS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT 2-4 KT SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, PREVIOUS RUNS OF LAMP
AND HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWED A MIX OF FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
TONIGHT AFTER 07-09Z. LAMP GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE
POTENTIAL CIG RESTRICTIONS RECENTLY, BUT THE MEAN HREF SOLUTION
REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS LESS
THAN 1000 FT NEARING 40-60%. A 20-25 KT LLJ SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT VSBY RESTRICTIONS A BIT
MORE, BUT AT THIS TIME, PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY OR CIG RESTRICTIONS
SEEM POSSIBLE MAINLY FROM 08Z UNTIL AROUND 13Z. TRENDS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED TO DETERMINE IF MORE IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS
BECOME LIKELY. AFTER 14-15Z MONDAY, LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK BACK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH CLEARING SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...DH
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