810
FXUS62 KCAE 180006
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
806 PM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED KEY MESSAGE CONCERNING EVENING CONVECTION IN CSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING.
- 2. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
- 3. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A PATTERN
SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE CSRA WILL WIND DOWN THIS
EVENING.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS REMAINED MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CSRA IN AREAS WITH FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS, BUT A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO SNEAK INTO SOUTHWESTERNMOST BURKE
COUNTY AND DROP A BIT OF COOLING RAIN. INSTABILITY IS ON THE
DOWNTREND, HOWEVER, SO ANY REMAINING ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
BY MID EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, AS OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CENTER STAGE AND KEEPS OUR
WEATHER FAIRLY BENIGN. UPPER TROUGHING IN THE WEST WILL FORCE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
RESPONSE, INCREASING HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES WILL LEAD TO ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID-MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THE OFFSHORE HIGH WILL ALSO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY,
AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FEED A STEADY STREAM OF
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S MUCH
OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3: LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, A
PATTERN SHIFT MID TO LATE WEEK MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
THE CHANCE FOR RAIN REMAINS LOW MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND MOST OF
WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SLOW MOVING FRONT WHICH MAY
ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH BETTER
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.5" AND 1.8"), AND A COUPLE WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES LASTING
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LOOKS TO REMAIN WELL WEST OF
THE AGS/DNL TERMINALS SO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5
TO 7 KNOTS THIS EVENING GRADUALLY WANE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
AFTER 06Z. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE PREDAWN STRATUS/FOG.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF STRATUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME ACROSS THE EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND SPREADING NORTHWESTWARD POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW VFR PREVAILING CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPO TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS 09Z-13Z. ANY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS PICKING UP THROUGH THE
DAY TO AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS BY 15Z AND CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS AFTER
21Z. LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION ON MONDAY GIVEN
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FA
AVIATION...23
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