896
FXUS62 KCAE 181823
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
223 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE COULD BE LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
INDICATES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED AND NO OR VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON. PWAT VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW TO
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY SO HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL NOT
RISE TO ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER, EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
ON AVERAGE, MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTS HIGH PRESSURE EASTWARD LATE
THIS WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PWAT VALUES RISE TO
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SEASON. HOWEVER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
FROM THE NAEFS ARE ALSO AROUND NORMAL. THIS WOULD POINT TO A
SEASONAL SETUP FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION, POSSIBLY
ENHANCED TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING OVER
THE RIDGE. POPS FROM BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOW VALUES ABOVE WHAT ARE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED AND COULD BE TOO HIGH GIVEN THE
SYNOPTIC SET UP.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WITH BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.
FEW TO SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS. OCCASIONAL LOW-
END GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND MIXING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO FULLY CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET AS WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH RECENT HREF AND REFS
GUIDANCE, SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER 08-10Z. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE, SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING, INDICATING A 40-60% CHANCE OF CEILINGS BELOW 1,000 FT
NEAR THE TYPICAL FOG-PRONE TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME, PERIODS OF
MVFR VISIBILITY AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS APPEAR MOST LIKELY
BETWEEN 09-13Z. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED TO DETERMINE IF
MORE IMPACTFUL RESTRICTIONS BECOME LIKELY. AFTER 13-14Z TUESDAY,
LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WITH
CLEARING SKIES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...ND
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