233
FXUS62 KCAE 190659
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
259 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND CONTINUE AND SHOULD
GENERALLY FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK ONWARD, BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS
TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AMPLIFIED EAST COAST RIDGING AND OFFSHORE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THIS
WEEK LEAD TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE END OF THIS WEEK. MID-MAY NORMALS GENERALLY FALL IN THE MID-80S,
WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY YIELDS HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S WITH SMALL (LESS THAN 3 DEGREE F) INTERQUARTILE RANGES.
TEMPERATURES MAY DECREASE JUST SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S
FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE AROUND, BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS IS MAINLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSLATING SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MORE ON THAT IN KEY
MESSAGE #2. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASED RISK OF HEAT- RELATED ILLNESS, AND
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN A MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE THREAT DECREASING FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK ONWARD, BUT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP THE REX BLOCK IN
PLACE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK, BUT A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD IS
EXPECTED IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SHOULD LEAD
TO INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS ALOFT. COUPLED WITH
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH, PWAT
VALUES RISE TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL, WITH GEFS MEAN VALUES OF 125-150%.
THE RESULT SHOULD BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRONG HEATING
AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED. ADDITIONALLY,
SOME ENHANCEMENT MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS,
AND WHERE THERE IS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW. WE'RE STILL A BIT TOO FAR OUT TO BE TALKING ABOUT
SPECIFIC RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT THE GEFS 50TH PERCENTILE QPF THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT RANGES FROM ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS TO JUST UNDER 0.75" IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WITH A GRADIENT IN BETWEEN. AS SUCH, IT APPEARS THAT ANY
RAIN WE DO GET AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON OUR ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY AT OGB AND
AGS BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS CURRENTLY WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A RELATIVELY WEAK SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO YESTERDAY MORNING. WHILE WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS ARE UNLIKELY AND NOT SUPPORTED BY GUIDANCE, BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS THE HIGHEST AT FOG-PRONE AGS AND OGB WHICH ALSO
EXPERIENCED RESTRICTIONS YESTERDAY MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS OR
FOG WILL MIX OUT RELATIVELY SOON AFTER SUNRISE WITH CUMULUS
CLOUDS DEVELOPING AROUND 5KFT AND SSE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...96
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page