542
FXUS62 KCAE 191806
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP MAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK IS
THAT IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST WILL PUSH A CAD/WEDGE BOUNDARY DOWN INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA FOR
FRIDAY. THAT COULD BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN COOLER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AT LEAST FOR THE NORTHERN FA. IF THE WEDGE
BOUNDARY DOES LINGER AROUND FOR LONGER THAN MODELS SHOW (AS
TYPICAL) THEN WE COULD SEE THOSE COOLER TEMPS STICK AROUND FOR
SATURDAY. SO THE CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN
FA THIS SATURDAY IS UNCERTAIN. OTHER THAN THAT EXPECT, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUT LOWER THAN ANY HEAT WWA THRESHOLDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK ONWARD.
A SLIGHT SHIFT EASTWARD IN RIDGING IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY AS STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS. THERE REMAINS A LARGE SPREAD IN ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
BETWEEN THE EURO AND OTHER GLOBAL ENSEMBLES. EC MEAN PWAT VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE IN THE 97.5 TO 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MUCH OF
THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WHILE THE NAEFS KEEP THE DEEPEST
MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH STRONGER RIDGING. IVT
REMAINS NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN BOTH
CASES. THE MOST AGREEMENT FOR DEEPER MOISTURE BETWEEN ALL
ENSEMBLES SEEMS TO BE LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A WEDGE
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST CHANCE
OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH THE MAIN FOCUS TO THE NORTH CLOSER
TO THE FRONT. HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AT
LEAST WEAK RIDGING QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
AROUND OR LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES FROM FRI TO SAT.
ON AVERAGE, HEIGHTS INCREASE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE SUPPRESSION DESPITE PWAT VALUES REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
AGGRESSIVE DESPITE SHALLOWER MOISTURE AND A SET UP MORE
INDICATIVE OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WIND FIELD REMAINS WEAK FROM LATE WEEK TO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED DOWNBURST IS
LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE. FEW CUMULUS HAVE BEEN SEEN AS
WELL AS SOME PASSING CIRRUS AND THESE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING. 6-9 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. GENEROUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AT LEAST PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND IMPACTS IS LOW. THE
LATEST HREF AND SREF SOLUTIONS YIELD PROBABILITIES FOR CEILINGS
LESS THAN 500FT BETWEEN 50-70% ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND UP
TOWARD OGB. THESE PROBABILITIES DECREASE TOWARD THE I-20
CORRIDOR, YIELDING A BIT LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER
TERMINALS. WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE LOOKING AT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS, THINK MVFR TO IFR VSBY AND/OR CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD AGS/DNL/AIK AS WELL. AS NEWER GUIDANCE COMES
IN, WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IF PROBABILITIES INCREASE TOWARD
CAE/CUB. ANY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AFTER 13-15Z,
GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...DH
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