846
FXUS62 KCAE 221108
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
708 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
- 2. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERN
STREAM LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED, WITH MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE, SUPPORTED
BY THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND LREF, THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND BUILD DOWN ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN COLD AIR DAMMING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
INTO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH INDICATIONS THE
WEDGE COULD ERODE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR WEDGING APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR. THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE WEDGE, COMBINED WITH A DAILY SEA BREEZE
AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH WILL ALL ACT
AS TRIGGERS FOR CONVECTION.
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL INDEED SEE
RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA),
THIS MAY BE A BIT DECEIVING AS THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE
PERIODIC AS OPPOSED TO A COMPLETE WASHOUT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN.
MANY OF THE HREF MEMBERS SHOW THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
COMING THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, AND AGAIN
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DO COME DOWN A BIT LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT OVERALL THIS
IS A PATTERN THAT SUPPORTS GREATER RAIN CHANCES, MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL COULD FINALLY COME THIS WEEK. MEAN QPF
VALUES THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND THE NBM
SUPPORT 2.0-2.5 INCHES ALONG/NORTH OF I-20, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
OF 1.0-2.0 INCHES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, THE GEFS AND
THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SHOW AS MUCH AS 3.0-3.5 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH WOULD GENERALLY
SUGGEST A REASONABLE HIGH-END AMOUNT, MAINLY DUE TO LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH SOME ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE, WITH PRIMARILY AN
ISOLATED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
TO BE LIMITED THIS WEEKEND. MORE ORGANIZED MUTLI-CELLULAR
CLUSTERS COULD OCCUR LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES (ALONG WITH A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER NORTH OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY) SHOULD
PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENT FROM OCCURRING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES NORTH OF I-20 TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR DAMMING/WEDGE SCENARIO COULD IMPACT
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE LOCATION OF THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO
INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES. OVERALL, THE NBM SEEMS TO BE TOO WARM
ACROSS THE CATAWBA REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
MIDLANDS, WHERE THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FIRMLY IN
PLACE. HAVE THEREFORE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS TODAY
AND SATURDAY, BUT THEY VERY WELL CAN STILL BE TOO WARM AND NEED
FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MVFR-IFR STRATUS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPS AND MOVES IN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS ARE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS APPEARING AT OGB. PATCHY
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS FAVORABLE.
COLD AIR DAMMING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, SUPPORTING PERSISTENT
LOW STRATUS THROUGH AT LEAST MID- MORNING. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
WILL BEGIN AFTER 13-15Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PICKING BACK UP
NEAR 5-8 KTS.
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE, MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 22-23Z, CONTINUING TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS
THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS INTO
THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAQ
AVIATION...ND
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