769
FXUS62 KCAE 221856
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WITH MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PERSISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE TIMEFRAME MAY BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AT THIS TIME
ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA), THIS MAY BE A BIT DECEIVING AS THE
CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PERIODIC AS OPPOSED TO A COMPLETE WASHOUT
WITH PERSISTENT RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY: ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG IN THE CSRA AND
LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN THE
UPSTATE AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT OUT OF
THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY ADVECTING MOISTURE AND INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS TO OUR WEST
SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES
EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS
THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA POSSIBLY LEADING TO ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WITH POOR LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT CAN'T BE
RULED OUT. THE HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS SATURDAY WITH
20-30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW
MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH GIVEN THE EXPECTED
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD
HINDER LAPSE RATES.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED WITH A PERSISTENT
RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND BUT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MAY SUSTAIN STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
FAIRLY MOISTURE RICH SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASING. TAFS REFLECT THE INCREASING
COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING WITH A
TRANSITION FROM PROB30 TO TEMPO. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, 6-10 KNOTS
BEFORE SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEN
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT LEAVING WIDESPREAD AGAIN FOR SATURDAY
MORNING, LIKELY IFR CIGS. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...42
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