818
FXUS62 KCAE 222349
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH MARGINAL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. AVIATION
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEK
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PERSISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LIFTING TO THE WEST AND NORTH. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH MOST OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. THE MOST ACTIVE TIMEFRAME MAY BE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST AT THIS TIME
ALLOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER SUPPORT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE RAINFALL (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA), THIS MAY BE A BIT DECEIVING AS THE
CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PERIODIC AS OPPOSED TO A COMPLETE WASHOUT
WITH PERSISTENT RAIN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY IF
TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAINLY IN URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY: ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA WITH MOST COVERAGE
ACROSS THE CSRA AND NORTH/WEST OF I-20. SPC MESOANALYSIS
SHOWING MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG AND LOCALLY ENHANCED HELICITY
ALONG THE WEDGE BOUNDARY IN THE UPSTATE AND WESTERN MIDLANDS. A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIFT OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ADVECTING MOISTURE
AND INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM STORMS TO OUR WEST SHOULD TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
THIS EVENING AS IT MOVES EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
HELP SUSTAIN THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FA
POSSIBLY LEADING TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WITH POOR LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW BUT CAN'T BE RULED OUT. THE HIGHER THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS SATURDAY WITH 20-30 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR OVER
THE REGION WHICH COULD ALLOW MULTICELL CLUSTERS OR BOWING
SEGMENTS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THOUGH
GIVEN THE EXPECTED WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL OVER THE
AREA WHICH COULD HINDER LAPSE RATES.
THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED WITH A PERSISTENT
RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. PWAT VALUES REMAIN
ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL TREND BUT SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MAY SUSTAIN STORMS OUTSIDE OF THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A FAIRLY MOISTURE RICH SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS REMAINED
SOUTH TOWARDS AGS/DNL AS WELL AS NORTH AND WEST OF I-20.
COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALSO INCREASING. TAFS REFLECT THE
INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING WITH A TRANSITION FROM
PROB30 TO TEMPO FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH, 6-10 KNOTS BEFORE SUBSIDING
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT
LEAVING WIDESPREAD LIKELY IFR CIGS SATURDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON TOWARDS
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/CAL
AVIATION...ND
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