017
FXUS62 KCAE 230626
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED NEW KEY MESSAGE TO SPECIFICALLY ADDRESS THE THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY. AVIATION UPDATED
FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MONITORING FOR LOW-END RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
- 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MONITORING FOR LOW-END RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING RADAR REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ONE AREA OF MAINLY
STRATIFORM RAIN MOVING FROM THE CSRA NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDLANDS
WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. PWATS REMAIN QUITE
HIGH, BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.9 INCHES, SO THERE REMAINS A CONCERN FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. HAVING SAID THAT, THE FLOOD ADVISORY THAT
WAS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AS GAGE DATA SUGGESTS AREA STREAMS HAVE CRESTED AND
ARE RECEDING COURTESY OF A BREAK IN THE RAIN. WHILE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AT THIS HOUR, THE SEVERE THREAT IS
NEAR ZERO THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST ACTIVE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
WITH THE WPC HIGHLIGHTING A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND THE SPC SHOWING A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MODELED SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN INVERTED-V
WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF BOTH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF
I-20 ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN BUT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PERSISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THIS MAY BE A
BIT DECEIVING AS THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PERIODIC AS OPPOSED
TO A COMPLETE WASHOUT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR
THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO CONTINUE, MAINLY IN URBAN
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
PERSISTENT RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL
TREND BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MIX OF RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
A FAIRLY MOISTURE RICH SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS REMAINED SOUTH TOWARDS AGS/DNL AS
WELL AS NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. ANOTHER LINE OF STORMS IS
BEGINNING TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WHICH COULD BRING LIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 06-10Z.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS WE HEAD INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS WINDS SUBSIDE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS BECOME FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
FAVORABLE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO PICK UP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BASED ON THE LATEST HREF
GUIDANCE, MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 19-21Z, CONTINUING TO BRING ADDITIONAL WAVES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. THEREFORE, PROB30S FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL SITES FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...ND
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