943
FXUS62 KCAE 231136
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
736 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR TWEAKS TO KEY MESSAGE #1 TO HIGHLIGHT INCREASED FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IN THE WESTERN CWA. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 12Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MONITORING FOR LOW-END RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: MONITORING FOR LOW-END RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
AREAS OF RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA AT DAYBREAK. TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN, WITH THE WPC HIGHLIGHTING A
MARGINAL (1/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND THE SPC SHOWING A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA.
DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD RESULT IN
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MODELED SOUNDINGS
THIS AFTERNOON SHOW AN INVERTED-V WITH LONG, SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF BOTH HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE DAMAGING
WINDS, THOUGH DCAPE VALUES ARE LOW IN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS SO
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE A SECONDARY CONCERN BEHIND THE
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD POTENTIAL. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-20
ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. FLASH
FLOODING AND URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING ARE BOTH POSSIBLE
WITH THE LATEST LPMM SHOWING A SWATH OF 2 INCH RAIN AMOUNTS FROM
THE CSRA NORTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MIDLANDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PERSISTENT THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER DISTURBANCES
LIFTING TO THE NORTH AND WEST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH RANGE THROUGH
MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SUPPORTS AT LEAST SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENHANCED BY THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE
MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL, THIS MAY BE A
BIT DECEIVING AS THE CONVECTION MAY BE MORE PERIODIC AS OPPOSED
TO A COMPLETE WASHOUT WITH PERSISTENT RAIN. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY,
PARTICULARLY IF TRAINING CELLS DEVELOP. THIS RAISES CONCERN FOR
THE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT TO CONTINUE, MAINLY IN URBAN
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE IN THE EXTENDED WITH A
PERSISTENT RIDGE TO OUR EAST AND TROUGHING TO THE WEST. PWAT
VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
IN GENERAL, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOLLOW A DIURNAL
TREND BUT PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY SUSTAIN CONVECTION AFTER
SUNSET.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOWERED CEILINGS CONTINUE AT SOME TERMINALS THIS MORNING....
AREAS OF RAIN AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE FA AT DAYBREAK ALONG WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS AT THE
TERMINALS. THE LOWERED CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MIDDAY WITH
ALL TERMINALS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN TO VFR BY 15-16Z. ATTENTION
THEN TURNS TO RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A
PROB30 IS IN PLACE FROM 18Z UNTIL 00Z SUNDAY FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE NOT INDICATED IN THE TAFS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE RESULTING IN GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS DURING THEIR PASSAGE. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AS WELL RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. AS ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN THIS EVENING, LOW CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AT ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME RAIN MAY
LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7/DH
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