583
FXUS62 KCAE 231745
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CSRA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE MIDLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DESTABILIZATION IN
THE CSRA WITH SBCAPE EXCEEDING 2500 J/KG. THERE REMAINS A SHARP
GRADIENT IN INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE FRONT IN PLACE IN
THE NORTHERNMOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A NOTABLE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AS TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW
70S IN THE NORTH/NORTHWESTERN AREA TO MID TO UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST. A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH GEORGIA WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
WHICH WITH PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STORMS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES, NEAR THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND
13,000 FEET, RAINFALL WILL BE EFFICIENT. WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-20
RECEIVING SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL YESTERDAY, GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES BASED
ON COCORAHS AND RADAR ESTIMATES, ANY TRAINING STORMS COULD CAUSE
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED
AS CAPE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY SKINNIER, WITH LIMITED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, HOWEVER, COULD
SEE LOCALIZED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE PRECIP-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS
DEVELOP. WITH FORCING PROVIDED BY THE SHORTWAVE, CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A RIDGE OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
COAST, ENSURING A STRONG MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA.
PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
THEY WILL STAY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THERE WILL SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO
MONITOR A POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREA WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE LOCATION
WHERE SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WHICH HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SO FAR THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCE DIMINISH SOME TONIGHT, BUT MORE
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
AS BETTER MIXING IS OCCURRING CEILINGS HAVE GENERALLY LIFTED,
BUT A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS REMAINS ACROSS THE TAF SITES WITH
BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. A STALLED FRONT SITS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS SO SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, LIGHT
WINDS ARE MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, AND NORTH OF THIS, WINDS A MORE
EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STARTING TO
FIRE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL, THOUGH COVERAGE IS FAIRLY
SCATTERED. DUE TO THIS, CHANCES EXIST AT EACH TERMINAL THROUGH
THIS EVENING TO SEE RESTRICTIONS FROM CONVECTION WHERE GUSTY
WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER STORMS. MAJORITY OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DIMINISHING BETWEEN 23Z-02Z, BUT
SOME SHOWERS AND WEAKER STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. A PROB30 GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 00Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG
RESTRICTIONS THAT COULD MOVE IN AS EARLY AS 23- 02Z. CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR DURING THAT TIME, BEFORE FALLING
FURTHER TO IFR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. PATCHES
OF LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL. RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOWARD MVFR.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THIS
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS TO
FINISH THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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