611
FXUS62 KCAE 232339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS, WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE,
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF WHICH MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED ACROSS THE REGION. PWATS
CONTINUE TO BE HIGH AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WITH RAINFALL STILL BEING
EFFICIENT. SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED, BUT THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WILL STILL EXIST.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A RIDGE OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND DEEP TROUGHING STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
COAST, ENSURING A STRONG MOISTURE SOURCE FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA.
PWATS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NAEFS MEAN INDICATING
THEY WILL STAY ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THERE WILL SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH MODERATE
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED EACH DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY LOW, WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO
MONITOR A POTENTIAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHWESTERN AREA WHICH IS MOST LIKELY TO BE THE LOCATION
WHERE SHORTWAVES WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND WHICH HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL RAIN SO FAR THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCE DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT, BUT
MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
PLENTY OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE ONGOING AT ISSUANCE TIME, BUT SHOULD BEGIN
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 01Z-03Z. PERIODS OF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME. ONCE THE RAINFALL ENDS, THERE SHOULD BE
A SHORT PERIOD WHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL DOMINATE. HOWEVER
TOWARDS 04Z-05Z, GUIDANCE SHOWING CEILINGS CRASHING DOWN INTO
IFR, WITH SOME PERIODS OF LIFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A PASSING
SHOWER AT ANY TAF LOCATION OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY
TIMING OR EVEN COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS.
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER 14-15Z SUNDAY BEFORE
BECOMING MVFR, THEN EVENTUALLY BACK TO VFR BY 18Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS TO
FINISH THE WEEKEND AND TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...CAL
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