381
FXUS62 KCAE 240546
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
146 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REMOVED KEY MESSAGE THAT DISCUSSED SEVERE AND FLOODING THREAT
FOR SATURDAY. UPDATED DISCUSSION FOR THE DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF SHORE AND AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA. THESE FEATURES LEAD TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH, PWATS RANGING FROM 1.7-2"
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS ABOUT 150-175% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. DUE TO THIS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING INSTANCES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT. THE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF I-20, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING
IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE AREA AND FLATTENING OUT THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CEILING RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.....
RADAR TONIGHT IS MUCH QUIETER WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS.
THE AREA OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE
AND IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT AGS/DNL. THE MAIN
ISSUE TONIGHT WILL BE A REDUCTION IN CEILINGS. ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT OGB ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS AND ALL
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AT LEAST BRIEF LIFR RESTRICTIONS
BY DAYBREAK. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP TOWARDS DAYBREAK BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
AFTER DAYBREAK, RETURNING TO VFR BY 18Z. ATTENTION WILL THEN
RETURN TO RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18Z THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG/STRATUS TO
FINISH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...7
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