043
FXUS62 KCAE 241126
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
726 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY SIMILAR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER RIDGE OFF SHORE AND AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY KEEPS PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A BERMUDA HIGH IS ANTICIPATED
TO REMAIN GENERALLY IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
WEDGING INTO THE AREA. THESE FEATURES LEAD TO SURFACE
CONVERGENCE, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVERHEAD ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MOISTURE LEVELS HIGH, PWATS RANGING FROM 1.7-2"
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS ABOUT 150-175% OF NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
VERY EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS LIKE WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS. DUE TO THIS AND THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING INSTANCES ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEFORE THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT SOMEWHAT. THE AREAS WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES TO SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ARE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF I-20, WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE OCCURRED
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AHEAD, BUT THE CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING DECREASE AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD, BRINGING
IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE AREA AND FLATTENING OUT THE OFFSHORE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW CEILINGS AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.....
CEILINGS HAVE FALLEN TO AT LEAST IFR RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING
AND ARE CURRENTLY LIFR AT CAE/AIK/AGS/DNL/OGB. IN ADDITION TO
THE LOW CLOUDS, THERE ARE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH THERE IS MINIMAL IMPACTS AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT. THERE MAY ALSO BE BRIEF PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE OR A PASSING SHOWER THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT CAE/CUB
BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT RESULT IN FURTHER REDUCTIONS.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE LATER THIS MORNING, RETURNING TO
VFR BY 17-19Z. ATTENTION WILL THEN RETURN TO RESTRICTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 18Z THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE, SO OPTED FOR
VCSH FOR THE MOMENT TO ALLOW NEW GUIDANCE TO COME IN. CEILINGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/LOW LOW
CLOUDS TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...7
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