402
FXUS62 KCAE 241812
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
212 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
TODAY/TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND HIRES MODELS DO INDICATE THE
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE FARTHER INLAND, ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT
RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS IN THE PAST TWO DAYS, LIMITING THE
OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT. PWATS REMAIN HIGH, BETWEEN 1.8 TO 2
INCHES, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN TRAINING STORMS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT
APPEARS LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE WEDGE FRONT SHIFTED A BIT
SOUTHWARD, LIMITING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH ONCE
AGAIN ISOLATED STRONG PRECIP-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS COULD LEAD TO A
DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD.
LATEST CAMS HAVE THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR
AREA TONIGHT, LIKELY DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST AND A LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. STILL IT WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS OF NORTHERN LEXINGTON AND
RICHLAND COUNTIES WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL LAST EVENING AND
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE INDICATES 1-2" PER HOUR RATES COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING.
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER EAST TEXAS. NAEFS MEAN INDICATES PWATS REMAIN AROUND
OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION,
ALTHOUGH A STRONG TROUGH STRENGTHENING IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
LEADS TO STRENGTHENING RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WHICH WOULD LIMIT
FORCING SOMEWHAT. WITH MOISTURE SO HIGH AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
EACH AFTERNOON, WILL LIKELY GET SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS
DEVELOPING, FAVORING THE SEA BREEZE AND PROPAGATING INLAND. STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE MORE STRATUS IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
SKIES ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING VFR WITH CLOUD BASES LIFTING THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS PICKING UP NEAR 4-7 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
GENERALLY. AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY MOVING NEAR OGB,
AND ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR HERE OVER THE COMING
HOURS AS THE INLAND PUSHING SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED TO BRING MORE
STORMS NEAR HERE. THE OTHER TAF SITES ARE A BIT TRICKY AS MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARDS KEEPING THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY AWAY
UNTIL AFTER 21-22Z AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS GETS
GOING, BUT THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP
ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE OTHER TAF SITES. THE MAIN
RESTRICTIONS WITH CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED TO COME FROM HEAVY
RAIN (LOWER VSBY'S), THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD BE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THIS EVENING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE CSRA, BRINGING MORE
POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM CONVECTION NEAR AGS/DNL/AIK MAINLY
FROM 22Z THROUGH AROUND 02Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS AS WELL. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND
POSSIBLY PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, WITH MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AFTER 05-08Z, CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/LOW LOW
CLOUDS TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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