561
FXUS62 KCAE 250616
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
216 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO WIND DOWN TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING ON TUESDAY IS DECREASING SOMEWHAT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT, BUT SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CSRA AND FAR EASTERN MIDLANDS AS
THE LATEST SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA. AFTER TONIGHT, THE
OVERALL FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NAEFS MEAN
INDICATES PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH TUESDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 2". HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT FORCING, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY, LIMITING THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT FOR THAT DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
WITH MOISTURE SO HIGH AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EACH
AFTERNOON, SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. STORM
COVERAGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE
LIMITED AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY DAYBREAK....
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA, NOT IMPACTING THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. A MOSTLY DRY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH A RETURN TO THE LOW CEILINGS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS RANGING FROM IFR TO MVFR LEVELS. IN
ADDITION, THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG AT AGS AND IT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. CEILINGS RISE AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING IS NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS DAYS SO FOR NOW THE TAFS
FEATURE VCSH AT 18Z, THOUGH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY BEGIN
SOONER THAN THAT. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...7
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