863
FXUS62 KCAE 251850
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
250 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS AS STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
THROUGH TUESDAY.
TODAY/TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND IS GENERALLY BEGINNING TO BUILD
NORTHWESTWARD. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS IS POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING WITH RATES BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR OVER
AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THE OVERALL FORECAST HASN'T CHANGED TOO MUCH. SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING RIDGING OFFSHORE AND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NAEFS MEAN
INDICATES PWATS REMAIN AROUND OR ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE
THROUGH TUESDAY, GENERALLY AROUND 2". HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION TODAY
AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST STRENGTHENS THE RIDGING OVER OUR AREA WHICH
WOULD LIMIT FORCING, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY, LIMITING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT FOR THAT DAY COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS. WITH
MOISTURE SO HIGH AND MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EACH AFTERNOON,
SCATTERED STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP. STORM COVERAGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
AS SOUTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS BUT ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND WITH EC EFI SIGNALING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS IMPACTING TERMINALS WITH
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALREADY HAVE OBSERVED
RAPID LOWERING VISIBILITIES TO IFR AT TIMES WITHIN STORMS. WHILE
STORM COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND THE TERMINALS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
LOWERING CEILINGS TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR BUT
POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WELL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LIKELY ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING WILL BE AFTER 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BRING MORE ROUNDS OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG AND/OR LOW
CLOUDS. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...96
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