748
FXUS62 KCAE 260611
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
211 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: THE LAST CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE INTENSITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS DECREASING, SO THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT IS LOW FOR THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACTIVITY IS MOVING TOWARD THE FORECAST ARE FROM
THE SOUTH, BUT THIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AND ISOLATED.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME FOR ONE MORE DAY
AS THE OFFSHORE RIDGE AND AND A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
CONUS KEEPS SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP
MOISTURE LEVELS VERY HIGH WITH PWATS AROUND THE 2", WHICH IS
ABOUT 150% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEAK SHORTWAVE
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AGAIN TODAY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
DAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO BE LESS THAN MONDAY. WITH THE
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE, LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN. THE 00Z HREF LPMM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A COUPLE OF
POCKETS OF 4" OR MORE OF RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH IS
A REASONABLE HIGH END SCENARIO FOR RAINFALL GIVEN THE STATE OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, ESPECIALLY IF IT FALLS ON AN
AREA THAT HAS SEEN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AFTER TODAY A TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG FROM CANADA DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AIDING IN
SLOWLY PUSHING THE HIGHEST PWATS SOUTHWARD. AS A RESULT OF THIS
AS WELL AS A LACK OF FORCING, PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE FOR
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. THE TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY BRINGING
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS AS GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT FOR LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERNIGHT CEILING RESTRICTIONS AND PATCHY FOG EXPECTED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO IMPACTS TO TERMINALS WOULD BE
BRIEF, IF ANY. RAINFALL AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST PATCHY FOG. THIS MAY LEAD TO
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY AT AGS AND DNL WHICH
RECEIVED RAIN LAST EVENING AND FOG PRONE OGB.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SITES POSSIBLY
RETURNING TO VFR BY 15Z BUT COULD STAY MVFR INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. THE
GREATEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO THAT. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST. WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE EVENING WE COULD
SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOP DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST WIND PROFILES AND THE HRRR
TEND TO FAVOR STRATUS OVER FOG. AT LEAST PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS
ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS
POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...CJR
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