473
FXUS62 KCAE 261838
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
238 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY.
TODAY/TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PWATS REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH MESOANALYSIS ABOVE INDICATING ABOVE 2
INCH PWATS. STORMS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING OCCASIONALLY SOMEWHAT
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE, WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AS STORM HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. FLASH
FLOODING REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A THREAT, ALTHOUGH FLOW ALOFT HAS
REMAINED STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ISSUES TO THIS POINT AND
UNLIKE YESTERDAY, WE LACK SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
LEAD TO TRAINING.
PATTERN CHANGES A BIT TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE, LEADING TO LOWER MOISTURE WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE ISOLATED EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GEFS PROBABILITIES OF
SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LATE MAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORNING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WITH CONVECTION WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS TOWARD 25-35 KTS. THERE
HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IN SPOTS, BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RAISE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 5-9
KTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND,
ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILINGS RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS BOUNTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. THERE IS LESS
CONFIDENCE ACROSS GUIDANCE IN HOW LOW CIGS GET, BUT AT LEAST
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS SEEM POSSIBLE AFTER 06-08Z. WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO EVALUATE IF IFR CIGS BECOME MORE LIKELY. ANY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH 5-8 KT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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