247
FXUS62 KCAE 270109
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
909 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY.
TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. PWATS REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH, WITH MESOANALYSIS ABOVE INDICATING ABOVE 2
INCH PWATS. STORMS HAVE BEEN EXHIBITING OCCASIONALLY SOMEWHAT
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH WINDS GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH
RANGE, WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS, AS STORM HEIGHTS REMAIN
RELATIVELY LOW WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY IN THE LOW LEVELS
AND SKINNY CAPE PROFILES IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS. FLASH
FLOODING REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A THREAT. CURRENTLY THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING ACROSS WESTERN ORANGEBURG AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS UNDER SOME TRAINING STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
PATTERN CHANGES A BIT TOMORROW WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN US WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGE
OFFSHORE, LEADING TO LOWER MOISTURE WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE AREA. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE MODERATE DESTABILIZATION
EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE
MORE ISOLATED EACH DAY WITH SEASONABLY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS GEFS PROBABILITIES OF
SBCAPE GREATER THAN 500 J/KG, ON THE LOW SIDE FOR LATE MAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY EXPECTED AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN BLENDED GUIDANCE OWING TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CIGS THIS EVENING AS CONVECTION MOVES
THROUGH. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, BUT ANOTHER
ROUND OF MORNING CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AROUND
25-35 KTS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH A STRONG
LINE CURRENTLY MOVING IN AND AROUND CAE, CUB, AND AIK. FOR NOW,
A TEMPO GROUP IS IN THERE UNTIL 04Z. LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
REMAIN AT A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE CWA. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG RESTRICTIONS INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW,
THOUGH AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
AFTER 06-08Z. SKIES SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, WITH VFR RETURNING
ALONG WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KT. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
TOMORROW, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR TAF INCLUSION AT
THE END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...23/96
AVIATION...ND
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page