531
FXUS62 KCAE 280015
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
815 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING DOWNWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. UPDATED THE 00Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. CHANCES ON
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODULATED BY THE LOCATION
OF A BACKDOOR FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. CHANCES
ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MODULATED BY THE LOCATION
OF A BACKDOOR FRONT.
THE PATTERN TODAY HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY, FAVORING A BIT OF A
REPRIEVE FROM THE ROBUST WET WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE LAST
WEEK OR SO. A BROAD, CLOSED LOW IS MEANDERING ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA, WITH NARROWING UPPER RIDGING EXTENDING INTO CANADA.
BENEATH THIS, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL SLOWLY BEGIN SHIFTING EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF THIS & THE AMPLIFIED
CALIFORNIA LOW HAVE LED TO A BIT OF AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGING
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS DIGGING SOUTHWARD.
THIS HAS SHIFTED THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOISTURE RICH FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURGE OF 2"+ PWS HAS PUSHED NORTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA AND WE ARE NOW SEEING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY OR WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ATOP THE AREA INSTEAD OF PURELY SOUTHERLY
FLOW THAT HAS BEEN PUSHING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AREA RECENTLY. THE AIRMASS STILL
REMAINS FAIRLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED STORMS
THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS NOT FAVORED
AND SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. AS WE GET
INTO THURSDAY, THE TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS IS
FORECAST TO BEGIN SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS.
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED, WITH RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWING
~2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DOWNBURSTS WITH PRECIP LOADING ARE THE
MOST PROBABLY HAZARDS WITH STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND I DO
EXPECT THAT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT GREATER
THAN CURRENT RUNS OF CAMS ARE INDICATING. DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, BUT FLASH FLOODING
WITH TRAINING STORMS IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS MORE UNCERTAIN. GUIDANCE IS MIXED
ON WHERE THIS BACKDOOR FRONT ENDS UP. THERE IS A RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES, FROM THE RRFS-MPAS WHICH PUSHES THE FRONT CLEAR
INTO CENTRAL GA TO THE ECMWF WHICH HANGS IT UP IN THE WESTERN
MIDLANDS. THIS WILL MAINLY MODULATE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY/SATURDAY
AS IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS FRONT BEGINS WASHING OUT A BIT AND
LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. GIVEN OUR SATURATED SOILS
CURRENTLY, ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE REPEAT ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS WEEKEND WILL HAVE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. PWS >2" WILL PROMOTE MORE EFFICIENT RAINFALL. WHILE
SHOWERS & STORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY FRI-MON, THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE IN THE CSRA ON FRIDAY AND THEN THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MIDLANDS & CSRA ON SATURDAY, WITH BETTER
CHANCES OVERSPREADING THE AREA THEREAFTER. A MORE ROBUST FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRYING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
EXCEPT POSSIBLE BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND
PREDAWN FOG/STRATUS.
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS WIDESPREAD TODAY BUT A LINE OF
STORMS HAS FORMED AROUND 00Z JUST NORTH OF AUGUSTA AND EXTENDING
INTO THE COLUMBIA AREA. MORE ISOLATED STORMS MAY IMPACT OGB AS
WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LIMITED TO 03Z OR SO BUT HAVE INCLUDED
VCSH WITH A TEMPO FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME IFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS
OVERNIGHT BUT GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS THIS EVENING.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD NO VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS BUT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND STORMS THAT HAVE IMPACTED TERMINALS TODAY FEEL
SOMETHING IS NEEDED TO INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR VSBY AND/OR
CIG RESTRICTIONS DURING THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME. WINDS PICK UP
TOMORROW AFTER 15Z FROM THE WEST AT AROUND 6 TO 10 KNOTS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT. CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN SO LEFT OUT OF THIS
FORECAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MORNING FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH
DAY THIS WEEK. SCATTERED, DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/PL
AVIATION...23
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