656
FXUS62 KCAE 290013
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
813 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL/WESTERN
MIDLANDS AND CSRA. UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN
EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE CSRA AND THEN EXPANDING OVER
THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY IN THE CSRA AND THEN EXPANDING
OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY. FLASH FLOODING IS A THREAT DURING THIS
PERIOD.
A COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO YIELD ANOTHER
ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FORECAST
TO GENERALLY BE DRIVEN BY MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH
THE AREA ATOP A NORTHWARD LIFTING SURFACE FRONT AMIDST
IMPRESSIVE PWS OF 2.0"-2.2" ACROSS THE AREA.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE MIDLANDS
PER SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
CAMS SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT WILL BE
RELIANT ON ROBUST, INITIAL UPDRAFTS FOR SOME PRECIP LOADING &
SUBSEQUENT DOWNBURSTS WITH THAT. THE OVERALL HEAVY RAIN THREAT
SEEMS LOWER THAN IT HAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW
SATURATED THE SOILS ARE, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO CAUSE FLOODING
ISSUES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET.
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO CONTINUE SLIDING SOUTH
AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE NIGHT, WITH A PRETTY LARGE SPREAD
(ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIMEFRAME) AMONGST GUIDANCE ON WHERE THE
FRONT ITSELF SETS UP. SOME CAMS HAVE THE FRONT PUSHING CLEAR
INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
THE NE US IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG SO IT SEEMS THAT IT WILL BE
UNABLE TO PUSH THE FRONT THAT FAR SOUTHWEST OF US. MOST
GUIDANCE IS COMING TOWARDS A CONSENSUS OF THE FRONT HANGING UP
SOMEWHERE IN THE ATLANTA- AUGUSTA- ORANGEBURG LOCATION &
BEGINNING TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
DRIVING THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
FORECAST TO EMANATE FROM A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
US. SO WHILE THERE MAY BE A REPRIEVE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS WHERE PWS LOOK
TO FALL TO LESS THAN 1.5"), THIS WILL BE SHORT- LIVED.
THE ENVIRONMENT FORECAST TO THEN OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY NIGHT IS QUITE PRIMED FOR PROBLEMS
LOCALLY GIVEN HOW MUCH RAIN WE HAVE RECEIVED ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. PWS OF >2" & LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL FAVOR
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES ATOP SOILS THAT ARE ALREADY PRIMED FOR
FLASH FLOODING. THE PRESENCE OF MULTIPLE, FOCUSED SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ATOP THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY IS QUITE CONCERNING,
SPECIFICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CAMS ARE
SOMEWHAT OF A MIXED BAG RIGHT NOW, THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING
UP ON AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IN THIS PERIOD. ECMWF EFI
FOR QPF HAS SHOT UP RUN TO RUN IN THIS PERIOD, ADDING CONFIDENCE
TO THIS. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE, WE MAY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THEREAFTER, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. GUIDANCE IS
GENERALLY SHOWING A BIT OF A DRYING TREND ON SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER SHOT OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONT IS GENERALLY FORECAST TO RESULT IN DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS
POINT, NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT IT ACTUALLY COMES TO
FRUITION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD BUT SOME BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGS/DNL/OGB/AIK.
CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY WANED THIS EVENING BUT A FEW STORMS
NEAR COLUMBIA LED TO A TEMPO GROUP AT CAE/CUB THROUGH 02Z,
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
THERE AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
AROUND 5 TO 7 KNOTS.
FURTHER SOUTH, AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT
THINK THERE IS SOME THREAT OF FOG/STRATUS AT OGB/AIK/AGS/DNL
WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT AGS/DNL WITH POOLING MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. INCLUDED A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WITH TEMPO
IFR VSBYS AT AGS/DNL AND TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS AT
AIK/OGB GENERALLY 07Z-13Z TIME FRAME FOR THESE TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL ALSO PICK UP FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 12Z AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GREATEST RAINFALL AND EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CHANCES WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/PL
AVIATION...23
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