378
FXUS62 KCAE 290651
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A FOCUS ON THE CENTRAL/WESTERN MIDLANDS
AND CSRA.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY IN THE CSRA THEN
EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY IN THE
CSRA THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
AN ACTIVE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 2-2.2", WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
EVENING SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD BEFORE STALLING. GUIDANCE
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN ON THE EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY, THOUGH RECENT TRENDS FAVOR IT STALLING OVER ROUGHLY IN
THE ATLANTA, AUGUSTA, AND ORANGEBURG CORRIDOR. BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL INCREASE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH,
ALLOWING THE BOUNDARY TO LIFT BACK NORTHWARD. WHILE A BRIEF LULL
IN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MIDLANDS WHERE PWATS FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES, THE BREAK IN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
INCREASING FORCING RETURN TO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.
THE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARS
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SATURATED SOILS. PWATS OVER 2 INCHES
AND LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES, WHILE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTERACTING WITH A STALLED
BOUNDARY MAY LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH CAM GUIDANCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT MIXED,
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNAL PROLONGED RAINFALL, WITH ECMWF
EFI VALUES TRENDING UPWARD FOR QPF. WPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS A
SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE
CSRA AND A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) INTO THE CENTRAL
MIDLANDS. IF THE TRENDS CONTINUE, A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FA.
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF DRYING TREND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TERMINALS
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE SUBSIDED, THERE MAY
BE STRATO-CU WHICH LEADS TO MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS AT AGS/DNL, AIK, AND OGB WHICH
MAY BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT BUT RESTRICTIONS AT CAE
AND CUB WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO.
WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AFTER 12Z AND
GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH DRIER AIR OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LOWER TODAY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GA. WE
CAN'T RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS AT AGS AND DNL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND
WITH IT COULD USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF CEILING RESTRICTIONS AND
RAINFALL.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ON
SATURDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...CJR
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