072
FXUS62 KCAE 292349
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
749 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE CSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE CSRA,
THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
- 2. AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN
THE CSRA, THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE COAST INTO BURKE COUNTY AND THE CSRA. THE
MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED TO OUR SOUTHWEST,
GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO JACKSONVILLE.
THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS ALSO POOLING AROUND THIS BOUNDARY, WHERE
PWATS ARE AT 2" OR ABOVE. MOISTURE DROPS QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD
OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH AREAS ALONG THE SC/NC BORDER SEEING PWAT
VALUES OF AN INCH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AS OF THIS UPDATE.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE 2" PWATS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH, THE HREF, ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC HI-RES MODELS, KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CSRA AND TAPERS IT OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS SOLUTION
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF DRYING TREND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BEYOND
THAT. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THEN THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WATCHING FOR RESTRICTIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AT
AGS/DNL WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TONIGHT....
RADAR THIS EVENING IS MOSTLY QUIET IN THE MIDLANDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING IN THE CSRA.
ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST 30 MINUTES NEAR AGS AND
WILL LIKELY IMPACT THAT TERMINALS AND DNL THIS EVENING. A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. CEILINGS MAY ALSO
LOWER INTO MVFR AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS
REMAINING IN PLACE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/29
AVIATION...7
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