222
FXUS62 KCAE 300223
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1023 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT FOR TONIGHT CONTINUES TO REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE CSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE CSRA,
THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
- 2. AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN
THE CSRA, THEN EXPANDING OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED IN ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY INTO
THE CSRA. THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED TO OUR
SOUTHWEST, GENERALLY FROM THE ATLANTA AREA SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SAVANNAH. THE HIGHEST MOISTURE IS ALSO POOLING AROUND THIS
BOUNDARY, WHERE PWATS ARE AT 2" OR ABOVE. MOISTURE DROPS QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD OF THIS BOUNDARY BUT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE
INTO THE MIDLANDS AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO INCH NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH IT. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THE 2" PWATS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT. AS SUCH, THE HREF, ALONG WITH
DETERMINISTIC HI-RES MODELS, KEEP THE HEAVIEST RAIN JUST TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CSRA AND TAPERS IT OFF AS IT MOVES INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. REGARDLESS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, WITH LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING REMAINING POSSIBLE AS WE
HEAD INTO TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN IS THEN EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW
MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS
EXPECTED TO SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR
TO THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, THE
FORECAST GUIDANCE STARTS TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY AS SOLUTION
BEYOND SATURDAY, THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT TRICKIER. MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A BRIEF DRYING TREND SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.
THAT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK, ALLOWING COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN BEYOND
THAT. THERE SEEMS TO BE DECENT AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER FRONT MOVING
THROUGH MIDWEEK, BUT THEN THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN A RETURN TO
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY.
SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH OF THE FRONT, A MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR BROKEN
CUMULUS EXISTS, AND ALTHOUGH CEILINGS SHOULD BE RISING BACK TO
VFR BY 19Z, CAN NOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY
SITE. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE PUSHING BACK TO THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK INTO
THE FORECAST AREA, ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES. BEST RAIN
CHANCES THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE CSRA REGION, WITH AGS/DNL/AIK SHOWING THE MOST POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN FORMATION PRIOR TO 00Z. ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH SUNRISE ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION. TOWARDS MORNING RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE
TOWARDS THE MIDLANDS, BUT ONLY INCLUDED PROP30 FOR CAE/CUB/OGB
AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH COVERAGE AND
TIMING. CEILINGS AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AT ALL LOCATIONS, WITH
THOSE CONDITIONS THEN PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAYTIME ON
SATURDAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY, THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/29
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page