571
FXUS62 KCAE 301051
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO TREND LOWER WITH OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY,
BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
- 2. AFTER A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY, BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLOODING.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINA'S TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT NORTH AND ADVECT A DEEP
PLUME OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH PWAT VALUES
INCREASING TO 1.7-2" EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK WIND FIELDS HAVE
SUPPORTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND BACKBUILDING CONVECTION SO FAR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE LONG, SKINNY CAPE PROFILES,
WHICH FAVOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION AS MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES
INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
EARLIER THIS MORNING, LIGHT SHOWERS HAD A HARD TIME MAKING IT
UP TO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS. HI-RES MODELS REMAIN SET ON THE
ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY BREAKING THROUGH AND MAKING IT FURTHER INTO
SC AROUND DAWN, BUT THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
LOWER WITH OVERALL RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS.
A FEW BREAKS IN THE ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK,
HOWEVER, WITH PWATS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
MOST OF THE DAY WITH A LIMITED BUT CONTINUED THREAT OF ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: AFTER A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY, THE PATTERN
BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO OUR
SOUTH ON SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH COOLER AND DIRER AIR USHERING IN BEHIND. DESPITE THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, POOR LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION, WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS LINGERING NEAR
THE CSRA, CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY.
BEYOND THAT THE FORECAST BECOMES UNCERTAIN. MOST GUIDANCE
INDICATES A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW AND BRING IN COOLER AND DRIER
NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE REGION. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY MIDWEEK
WITH SOME BRINGING IN ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN. HOWEVER, A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK, STILL BELOW NORMAL THOUGH. MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS AS WELL
BRINGING BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
BY FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS EARLY WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS ACTIVITY, ALTHOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN SOME LOW CLOUDS AT
TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY, THERE IS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A PROB30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY POOL
ALONG IT, LEADING TO POTENTIAL CEILING RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...96
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