736
FXUS62 KCAE 310030
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
830 PM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- 2. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING
TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS HAVE DIMINISHED DURING THE LAST HOUR AND
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO WANE. ANY AREAS OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING SHOULD RECEDE AS WELL. RAIN CHANCES WILL END ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH THE
BOUNDARY WILL PROGRESS. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE
ACROSS THE CSRA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER AROUND THE
REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK. MULTIPLE PULSES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING
THE DAILY CHANCES FOR RAINFALL GOING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEK. GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS AN OFFSHORE LOW COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE AWAY FROM SHORE, ESSENTIALLY DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR THE
LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A WARMING TREND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO USHER IN SOME
COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE MID TO UPPER 70S FORECAST FOR HIGHS TOMORROW, BUT
SOME OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN COMING IN COOLER AS CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT SHOULD AID IN KEEPING
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. DECIDED NOT TO ADJUST TEMPS AT
THIS TIME, BUT THE MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES. AFTER TOMORROW, AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS BUILDING OVER
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. CEILING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS NEARING THE PEE DEE REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WORK THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A
LOOK AT RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA BUT NOT IMPACTING ANY OF THE
TERMINALS AT THE MOMENT. AS COVERAGE CONTINUES TO DECREASE OVER
THE COMING HOURS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY REACHING
THE TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THUS HAVE MAINTAINED
A PROB30 GROUP FOR THIS. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE AREA, WINDS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY VARIABLE, BUT SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT WORKS
THROUGH. AS THE FRONT PASSES TONIGHT, WINDS LIKELY PICK UP
TOWARD 7-11KTS, CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PUSH, THUS WHERE
GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS AND THE GREATEST RISK FOR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT. MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS MORE CONFIDENT IN
AGS/DNL/AIK REMAINING NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE FRONT, BUT THE
COLUMBIA TERMINALS MAY END UP JUST NORTH OF IT. OVERALL, PERIODS
OF MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 08-10Z,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT. LAMP AND HRRR GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
AGGRESSIVE IN KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AGS/DNL/AIK, WHILE HAVING SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING
NORTH OF HERE, BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 12Z HREF IS NOT AS PESSIMISTIC AND FAVORS A
RETURN TO VFR CEILINGS FOR ALL TERMINALS BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS MVFR CEILINGS COULD STICK AROUND
A BIT LONGER SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE GREATER MOISTURE IN
PLACE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THIS AS NEW GUIDANCE COMES
IN.
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AROUND 5-8 KTS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NEAR
THE CSRA BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD IN THE TAF AT
THE MOMENT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...DH
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