926
FXUS62 KCAE 311051
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
651 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
- 2. RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
THE COLD FRONT IS VERY SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE PEE DEE REGION AS OF
WRITING THIS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO MID TO UPPER 50S SEEN
JUST ACROSS THE SC/NC BORDER. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, PWAT'S REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.7-1.9" WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
COUPLE WEAK STORMS ON GOING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING VERY SLOW
STORM MOTIONS AND AT TIMES, BACKBUILDING, AS 0-6KM SHEAR VECTORS ARE
ALMOST PERFECTLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING IN
ISOLATED SPOTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY
TOWARD THE CSRA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO NEARLY STALL
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE CSRA WHERE DRIER AIR (PWAT'S DROPPING TO 1.30-
1.50) BEHIND THE FRONT MAY AID IN LIMITING POP'S, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
THE I-26 CORRIDOR. WITH THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE SOUTHERN FA
AND MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGHING
PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP'S ARE
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE CSRA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THE
THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
REMAIN AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LONG/SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES COINCIDING WITH PWAT'S OVER 1.75" AND WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS THAT EXCEED 12,500 TO 13,500 FT. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AND DEEPER MOISTURE
MAY RETURN NORTHWARD AS THE FRONT BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE,
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE FA. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THESE CHANCES AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MAY
END UP JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
THE DIFFUSE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH THE FA MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES WORKING INTO THE REGION AS AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS. A MORE ROBUST COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WORK THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AND AHEAD OF THIS STRONGER FRONT, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES SHOULD EXIST EACH DAY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. A
PUSH OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST SHOULD BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE CWA BY
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: RELATIVELY COOL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY AND EARLY THIS
WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND.
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IN THE
COMING DAYS. DEPENDING HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY, TEMPERATURES MAY TREND A BIT LOWER. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
NBM BRINGS TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FA, BUT
SOME MOS DATA FAVORS TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE LOW TO MID 70S SO
CLOUD COVER TRENDS WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. AFTER THIS, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST
BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED OMEGA BLOCK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
BREAKING DOWN BY THE MID WEEK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE POSITIONED OVER
THE PLAINS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD, BEFORE FULLY MOVING OVERHEAD
LATE IN THE WEEK. BESIDES DRIER CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM WEDNESDAY ONWARD AS SHOWN IN
RECENT ENSEMBLE AND CLUSTER GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
BRIEF IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG IT BUT WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE WINDS, SHIFTING MORE
EASTERLY. THIS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO DECREASING RAIN
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE MOSTLY MVFR
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR THE AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY AS THE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST IN CONTINUED RESTRICTIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND THE FRONT IN THE AREA, RAIN SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CEILINGS LIKELY LOWER FURTHER
INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THEY WILL BE
LOW MVFR OR IFR.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MID-
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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