485
FXUS62 KCAE 010606
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
206 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING RISK INTO THIS MORNING HAS DECREASED. A
STORM ON THE STRONG SIDE CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 2. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT BEFORE A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. A STRONG STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE SHORTWAVE IS NEARING THE FA TONIGHT AS ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS
SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY WITH PWAT'S BETWEEN 1.70-2.0"
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, EXCEPT SPOTS IN THE PEE DEE WHERE PWAT'S
NEAR 1.5" LINGER. 00Z GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECAYING. WHILE ISOLATED SPOTS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT, STORM MOTIONS
ARE A BIT QUICKER ALREADY SO THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING SEEMS LIMITED. THE MID TO LATE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THROUGH THE DAY, THE FRONT THAT PASSED ON SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER BACK NORTH A BIT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE SC COAST BEFORE A SHARPER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH
THE EASTERN US. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
SHARPER TROUGH, PASSING TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. OVERALL,
THE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED TO BE
CHARACTERIZED BY PWAT'S NEAR 1.70-1.90", INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEAR 20-30 KTS, AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. AS
DEPICTED IN THE 00Z HREF SOLUTION, UPPER SUPPORT AND THE SURFACE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOODING RISK IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
DAY'S AS STORM MOTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 15-25
KTS. A STORM ON THE STRONG SIDE WITH THE MAIN RISK OF STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL SEVERE
RISK IS QUITE LIMITED.
THIS FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD BRING
COOLER/DRIER AIR INTO TUESDAY, THOUGH IT MAY STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA, BRINGING CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. PWAT'S THEN LIKELY DROP TO
UNDER 1" TUESDAY EVENING AS A SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES, LEADING TO
DRIER CONDITIONS THAT LIKELY HOLD THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT
BEFORE A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
TODAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, BEFORE FALLING BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY AS A PUSH OF CAA MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE HAS HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
BUT DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT PUSHES AND THE TIMING
OF THE ONSET OF 850MB CAA, TEMPERATURES, COULD TREND TOWARD THE
LOW TO MID 70S AS SEEN IN THE RECENT MET/MAV MOS GUIDANCE. THERE
IS LIMITED CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE LATEST LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS REMAINS IS DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US
WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AS
WELL. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPERATURES THAT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY, BUT BEGIN STEADILY RAISING CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY
AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING IFR THIS MORNING, SCATTERED STORMS
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT THE TERMINALS WITH A FRONT
STALLED TO THE SOUTH AND POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
TERMINALS. HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR WILL
BE AT THE AUGUSTA TERMINALS ALONG WITH AIK/OGB. THERE REMAINS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY THESE COULD LEAD TO MVFR
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BUT EXPECTED THAT PREDOMINANT
RESTRICTION TO BE LOW CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS MORNING.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS LATER TODAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA, SCOURING OUT LOWER CLOUDS AND
LEADING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH SCATTERED STORMS ALONG IT. HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE
DECREASING AS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT APPROACHES
WHICH LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN STORMS AFFECTING THE THE TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY,
THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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