148
FXUS62 KCAE 021756
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
156 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
- 2. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.
A STALLED FRONT JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CSRA TODAY IS KEEPING PWATS
BETWEEN 1.0-1.25" ACROSS THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER
ARE LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE FALLING THROUGH THE 50S AS
THE SURFACE AIRMASS DRIES OUT. A NOTABLE SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
WINDS, GUSTY AT TIMES, IS ALSO OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
SUCH, INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SHOWER OR RUMBLE OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL ANY PRECIP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL WEAKEN AND END AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR THROUGH
THE COLUMN, WITH PWAT'S DROPPING TO UNDER 0.75". CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO
BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND.
THE COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WHICH WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO ONE MORE DAY OF WELL BELOW TEMPERATURES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN QUICKLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH PW VALUES
HOVERING AROUND 40-60% OF NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH SMALL NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES, FOR A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
MUCH DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY, ALLOWING FOR ANY
CLOUDS TO BE IN THE VFR CATEGORY, GENERALLY IN THE 6K-10K FEET
RANGE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP ON RADAR AT THE TIME
OF THIS UPDATE. SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT
THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THEY VERY LIKELY WON'T LAST
BUT A FEW MINUTES OR CAUSE ANY RESTRICTIONS, SO LEAVING ANY
PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. AFTER THESE SHOWERS END, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING
TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME AFTER 00Z. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT
15Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION MID
TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...29
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