718
FXUS62 KCAE 031717
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
117 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REPLACED KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY KICK OFF A WARMING TREND
INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY KICK OFF A
WARMING TREND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS COOLED AND DRIED OUT CONSIDERABLY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S WITH OCCASIONAL NORTHEASTERLY BREEZINESS. A STRONG
AND BROAD UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START BUILDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THURSDAY, REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE START OF THIS WEEKEND. THIS SETUP WILL SHUNT DEEP
MOISTURE AWAY FROM THE AREA, KEEPING PWAT VALUES UNDER 70% OF NORMAL
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SMALL THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL, WITH VALUES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY AND HOLDING THERE FOR SATURDAY AND
POTENTIALLY SUNDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN DECREASES A BIT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOME INDICATION IN ENSEMBLE AND GLOBAL GUIDANCE
THAT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH MAY ALLOW FOR MOISTURE
TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST LOW END RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE CONVERSATION FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA, PROVIDING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO
THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM AFTER SUNSET BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AFTER
ABOUT 15Z. BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THE
PRONE AGS/OGB TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...29
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