143
FXUS62 KCAE 040555
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
155 AM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES STARTING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY ENTER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE IS SHIFTING
INTO THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS TONIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING OVERHEAD STARTING TODAY. AS IT DOES SO, A
1022-1024MB SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AS WELL. THESE
FEATURES SHOULD AID IN BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING
TODAY AS 850MB TEMPS CURRENTLY NEAR 10C (PER THE 00Z CHS
SOUNDING) SHOULD WARM TOWARD 13- 15C. AT THE SURFACE, AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH TOWARD THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS
ELONGATED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE FA THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, BUT EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEMBERS SHOW PWAT'S
REMAINING AROUND 50-60% OF NORMAL, MEANING DEEP MOISTURE/HUMID
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE KEPT MOSTLY AT BAY. THIS CHANGES HEADING
INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MOVES INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOWARD THE LOWER 90S, BUT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S, SHOULD BRING
HUMID CONDITIONS. THERE IS BETTER CONSENSUS LOOKING AT
INDIVIDUAL EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS MEMBERS IN PWAT'S RETURNING
ABOVE 1" EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE
DEPARTING/WEAKENING RIDGE, SEASONABLE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP.
OVERALL, THE PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FAVORING A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PERHAPS SOME
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
SITES.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WINDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND/OR CALM AT ALL SITES. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAYTIME TO BRING
WINDS UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, THEN A RETURN TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE SHOULD OCCUR TOWARDS SUNSET THURSDAY EVENING.
WITH THE AIRMASS REMAINING QUITE DRY, DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT
FOG. ONLY POTENTIAL SITE IMPACTS COULD BE AT AGS/OGB WHERE THE USUAL
SHALLOW MORNING RIVER STEAM FOG COULD FORM AND BRING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS. CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL
MONITOR FOR THIS TO DEVELOP MORE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
AS FOR CLOUDS, THOSE SHOULD BE VERY MINIMAL, WITH MAINLY SOME THIN
CIRRUS PASSING ACROSS THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...CAL
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