623
FXUS62 KCAE 050058
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
858 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY, CONTINUING INTO THIS
WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS. DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG UPPER RIDGE NEAR THE NAEFS 90TH PERCENTILE IS SHIFTING
OVERHEAD STARTING TODAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE EAST COAST AND REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THESE FEATURES WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BACK TO NORMAL
EARLY JUNE TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. UNCHARACTERISTICALLY FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR , MODELS GENERALLY KEEP DEEP MOISTURE OUT THE AREA WITH
PWAT'S ONLY ABOUT 50-60% OF NORMAL, LIMITING THE THREAT FOR ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION AND KEEPING OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER RATHER PLEASANT.
THIS CHANGES A BIT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OFFSHORE AND BRINGS A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL BUMP UP DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AS MOISTURE LEVELS
RETURN CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK, WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE AND A FEW SHORTWAVES PASSING NEAR THE AREA MAY LEAD TO
BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY
GIVEN BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. CROSSOVER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S INDICATE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG
WITH FORECAST LOWS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS WILL
PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE S OR SW LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND REMAIN
RELATIVELY LIGHT, FROM 5 TO 10 KTS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS MOVING
OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO HANG ON
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...CJR
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