486
FXUS62 KCAE 080055
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
855 PM EDT SUN JUN 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO THE KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD.
WHILE DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DEEP RIDGING ALOFT WILL
CONTROL THE PATTERN, MOISTURE RETURNS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE PATTERN SYNOPTICALLY WILL NOT CHANGE
ALL THAT MUCH EACH DAY, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL
MONDAY, WHEN WE REACH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD RESULT IN LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY BEFORE WE SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
THE 90S DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. SCATTERED DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MOST DAYS THIS WEEK WITH
A FAIRLY TYPICALLY SUMMER PATTERN IN PLACE. THE COMBINATION OF
HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN OUR FIRST DAYS OF HEAT INDEX
VALUES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES, THOUGH STILL BELOW HEAT PRODUCT
CRITERIA. WITH THE RIDGE IN OUR VICINITY, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS UNLIKELY. WHILE PWAT'S SHOULD CLIMB ABOVE 1.75", QPF TOTALS
ACROSS ALL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY ONLY 0.25-0.75" WITH SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. AGS MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE BUT RESTRICTIONS ARE UNLIKELY
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. EXPECT LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS MONDAY
FROM 5 TO 8 KT BY LATE MORNING CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM THE WEST WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED OR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. COVERAGE MAY BE TOO LOW TO
HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN STORMS/RESTRICTIONS AT THE TAF SITES
BUT IT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THE WEEK LEADING TO SCATTERED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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