749
FXUS62 KCAE 091109
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
709 AM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE.
- 2. WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME FRAME
MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE.
RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE EARLY THIS WEEK. A
PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE SHIFTS EAST TODAY AND BRINGS BETTER PRECIP
CHANCES PARTICULARLY FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, ELEVATED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, GENERALLY 100-120% OF
NORMAL PWAT VALUES AND STRONG HEATING ARE STILL EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
A FEW VERY WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. THE SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THIS WEEKEND AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH 2"
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BECOMES STRONGER, LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZED CONVECTION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF DANGEROUSLY HOT
TEMPERATURES.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO LEAD TO H85 TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C, OR ABOUT 4-6C ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AT THE
SURFACE, THIS SHOULD BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 90S, OR 10-15F ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAT AND ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AT THE MOMENT, THIS WOULD REMAIN JUST SHY OF ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA,
BUT WE'LL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON APPARENT TEMPERATURES WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS, AS THIS WOULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WAVE OF THE SEASON.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING; SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING.
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS OVER 70F), GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS NEAR
SUNRISE, WITH MOST LIKELY RESTRICTIONS BEING MVFR. GIVEN THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS, INCLUDED A MVFR TEMPO FOR ALL SITES AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. RESTRICTIONS CLEAR OUT BY MID-MORNING WITH
A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY FOLLOWING. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED A PROB30 FOR THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS RETURN TO THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNAL, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...42
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