474
FXUS62 KCAE 111846
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
246 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DANGEROUSLY HOT AT TIMES, LIKELY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 2. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY; RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DANGEROUSLY HOT AT TIMES,
LIKELY THROUGH SUNDAY.
90TH+ PERCENTILE UPPER RIDGING AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO POSSIBLY LOW 70S
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WE WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BREAK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LREF PROBABILITIES OF
REACHING HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 108F WHICH WOULD TRIGGER A HEAT
ADVISORY ARE VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THAT SAID,
EARLY SEASON HEAT CAN LEAD TO A GREATER RISK OF HEAT ILLNESS THAN
SIMILAR CONDITIONS LATER IN THE SUMMER. ADDITIONALLY, THE
EXPERIMENTAL HEAT RISK CATEGORY OF MAJOR (3 OUT OF 4) WILL BE IN
PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH EVEN
SOME EXTREME (4 OUT OF 4) AREAS STARTING TO SHOW UP OVER THE WEEKEND
PARTICULARLY IN OUR CONCRETE JUNGLES OF COLUMBIA AND AUGUSTA. THIS
INCREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY TO EVENTUALLY BE HOISTED
BASED ON FORECASTER DISCRETION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY; RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE WILL GENERALLY
WORK TO LIMIT OUR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. THIS IS DESPITE AMPLE
MOISTURE (PWAT VALUES 110-130% OF NORMAL) AND EXPECTED STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING. EVEN SO, A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH CAM SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY KEEP MOST CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE OFF TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST.
INTERESTINGLY, CSU SEVERE PROBABILITIES, SPECIFICALLY FOR SEVERE
WIND, ARE HIGHLIGHTING SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE CONDITIONS
PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED, AND WE'LL NEED TO HAVE SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT
FROM ANY SHORTWAVES THAT LINE UP WITH OUR MOST UNSTABLE TIME PERIOD.
MODEL SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE BETTER INSTABILITY OF OVER 1500 J/KG
SBCAPE, LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN BETTER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, ECENS IVT VALUES INCREASE TO OVER THE
90TH PERCENTILE AND REMAIN THERE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THIS IN
MIND, EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE (AND
SUBSEQUENTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES GIVEN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES) TO KICK
IN BY MONDAY AND LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOP. A SCT
CUMULUS DECK AROUND 4500-6000 FT HAS DEVELOPED AND A COUPLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN NOTED IN PARTS OF THE CSRA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN ANY SHOWER OR WEAK STORM IMPACTING THE TERMINALS
REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF. HEADING INTO THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, A 20-25 KT LLJ IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE FEW CIRRUS PASS OVER THE REGION. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AFTER 15-17Z FRIDAY,
ANOTHER CUMULUS DECK AROUND 4000 TO 6000 FT SHOULD DEVELOP AS
WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE WESTERLY AROUND 5-8 KTS. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY GREATER CHANCE FOR INCREASED COVERAGE IN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR THIS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND. GREATER
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...DH
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