082
FXUS62 KCAE 141740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS.
- 2. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY LEAD TO DAMAGING WINDS.
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
AND TN RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR LINEAR
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DOWNSHEAR OF THE CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS.
WITH VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG DCAPE IN PLACE
TODAY BUT RELATIVELY WEAK OR MODERATE MLCAPE THIS TENDS TO FAVOR
A COLD POOL DRIVEN SYSTEM DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST OR NORTHWEST
AND DRIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING.
THE CAMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH TIMING BUT THE
HRRR WHICH HAS HAD DECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY SHOWS THE LINE
OF STORMS WORKING INTO THE FA IN THE LATE EVENING, DECAYING WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND POSSIBLY TOO COLD POOL DOMINANT TO
SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR EAST TODAY CLOSER TO THE SEA
BREEZE WHICH COULD PRODUCE A MORE ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. THIS POINTS TO AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR
DAMAGING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE THREAT OF
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LIMITED.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, IT WILL BE SEASONABLY HOT TODAY BUT HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING INTO THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA BY MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK OVER THE FA. SO MONDAY LOOKS TO
HAVE LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEYOND
THAT, PERSISTENTLY HIGH IVT (90TH PERCENTILE PER NAEFS) SHOULD
AID IN KEEPING THINGS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK. BY THE END OF
THIS UPCOMING WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA & ANOTHER FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS.
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. DIURNAL CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. HI-RES MODELS
REMAIN INCONSISTENT REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS,
ALTHOUGH SOME SOLUTIONS SUGGEST TWO ROUNDS/LINES OF CONVECTION.
ONE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (BETWEEN 18-24Z) AND
ANOTHER LATER TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO
UNCERTAIN SO I CONTINUED THE PROB30 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL AS ADDED ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP FOR THE 02-08Z
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ONCE STORMS START
DEVELOPING.
SURFACE WINDS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT STRONGER TODAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO 5-7
KT, OUTSIDE OF STORM COVERAGE AREAS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
RIGHT NEAR US BY TOMORROW MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO WNW AT
7-10 KT. DRIER CONDITIONS AND HIGHER CLOUDS WILL PUSH IN FOR
MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID WEEK ALONG
WITH POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WITH A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...ND
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