046
FXUS62 KCAE 161131
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
731 AM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
HELP EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, PARTICULARLY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
KEEP THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS (AND
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER) IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP
CHANCES THEN ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MAJORITY
OF RAINFALL STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY APPEARS
RELATIVELY WEAK, SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, ANY STRONGER STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY,
HELPING TO MAINTAIN A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL
BY MIDWEEK, WHILE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN THE
WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LOW IN THE GULF AS IT TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER AND SLOWER-MOVING
SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE WAVE REACHING THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS PULL MOISTURE FROM
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR GREATER
DETAIL AT THIS TIME. BY THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT. WHILE BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY, WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE PASSING OVER THE TERMINALS, ALTHOUGH SOME LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR IS PREVENTING MUCH OF THE RAIN FROM REACHING THE
SURFACE AND PREVENTING RESTRICTIONS. HEAVIEST RAIN LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE TERMINALS TODAY SO WHILE
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY, MAINLY MVFR
VISIBILITIES, DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS UNTIL
TONIGHT. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF TSRA WITH LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STRUGGLING TO DESTABILIZE THE AREA WHICH MAKES SENSE
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS. WINDS OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT,
WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, MAINLY AS LOW CEILINGS WITH WINDS LIKELY REMAINING
ELEVATED TO PREVENT FOG. HIGH PROBABILITY OF LOW MVFR CEILINGS
AND INCREASING PROBABILITY OF IFR CEILINGS FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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