538
FXUS62 KCAE 161752
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 PM EDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
AND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
HELP EXPAND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, PARTICULARLY AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, LATEST
TRENDS SUGGEST THE PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MOVES INTO THE
AREA LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS
KEEP THE HIGHEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PWATS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE HIGHEST POPS (AND
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER) IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LOCATIONS SOUTH. A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP
CHANCES THEN ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE MAJORITY
OF RAINFALL STAYS SOUTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY APPEARS
RELATIVELY WEAK, SO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME, BUT GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, ANY STRONGER STORM IS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING TO THE END OF THE WEEK, MOST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
DRIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY,
HELPING TO MAINTAIN A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL
BY MIDWEEK, WHILE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES LATE IN THE
WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THE LOW IN THE GULF AS IT TRACKS INLAND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT.
THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONGER AND SLOWER-MOVING
SYSTEM, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS FASTER WITH THE WAVE REACHING THE
AREA BY THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES APPEAR
LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS PULL MOISTURE FROM
THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AND ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR GREATER
DETAIL AT THIS TIME. BY THE WEEKEND, DRIER AIR SHOULD RETURN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
RESTRICTIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS WITH CEILINGS
REMAINING AROUND 10KFT OR HIGHER AND SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN
3500-5000 FT. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
INTO THE UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
MIXING HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIMITED. TONIGHT, WITH INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE. WHILE CEILINGS
WILL BE THE DOMINANT RESTRICTION, BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS, BUT FOR THE
MOST PART, RAIN SHOULD BE GENERALLY LIGHT. INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN DEVELOPING IFR CEILINGS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS WHICH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH
INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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