729
FXUS62 KCAE 171851
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
251 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE WORK WEEK
DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
- 2. SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM KEY
MESSAGE 1.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ACTIVE WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO END THE
WORK WEEK DUE TO SYSTEM FROM THE GULF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS.
POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE 1 (PTC 1) HAS MOVED OFF THE TX COAST
AND INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF. WHILE OVER THE WARM WATERS, IT IS
FORECAST TO INTENSIFY BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WEAKENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE UPPER WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES ALONG
A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN TIMING, THERE
IS STILL SOME DISCREPANCY BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH THE
ECMWF STILL BEING THE STRONGEST WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EVOLVE,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WE'LL SEE ACTIVE WEATHER THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER WAVE ALONG THE GULF COAST, A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO START MOVING SOUTHWARD FROM THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN, CAUSING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE (50-60%) OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 25
MPH. INCREASED MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED AS THE UPPER WAVE PULLS
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS OVER 2" LIKELY
EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO
LOOK MOIST ADIABATIC THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED AS WELL, SO THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS INDICATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
INCREASING. DESPITE THE INCREASED THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN,
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH THAT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHWEST. LASTLY,
AHEAD OF THE HEAVY RAIN, THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE (~1000
J/KG OR GREATER) AND 0-6 KM SHEAR (~20-25 KTS) TO SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS MORNING MOVE OUT AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER FROM
KEY MESSAGE 1.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING ACROSS THE SOUTH IS BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWER CHANCES TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, WHICH
IS WEAKER THAN FORECAST, LEADING TO LESS ACTIVITY THAN
ANTICIPATED PREVIOUSLY. ONCE THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES, DRY
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM DISCUSSED IN KEY MESSAGE 1.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR TODAY
AND TOMORROW AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
DRIER AIR SHIFTED INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH LED TO
RESTRICTIONS DIMINISHING, ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TOMORROW WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY IN THE AUGUSTA/AIKEN/ORANGEBURG TERMINALS. WHILE
THERE REMAINS A BRIEF CHANCE OF IFR CEILINGS, HAVE LEFT AT THE
MENTION WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT. CONVECTION
INITIATION TOMORROW APPEARS TO GENERALLY BE AFTER 18Z SO HAVE
LEFT OUT ANY TSRA AS WELL. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE,
GENERALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNALLY FAVORED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
CSRA. BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU/FRI WITH INCREASED CHANCES
OF RAIN AS A GULF COAST SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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