621
FXUS62 KCAE 220054
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
854 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP ACROSS THE REGION
EARLIER THIS EVENING MAINLY IN THE CSRA AND SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH MAINLY HIGH CIRRUS PASSING
OVERHEAD.
RAIN CHANCES ARE HIGHER ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC SWO PLACES MUCH OF THE CWA IN A
MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK
GRAZING THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS BECOME
SEVERE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.
WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
APPEARING IN MODELED SOUNDINGS THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP.
A SERIES OF WEAK, MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH
WEAK BOUNDARIES PASSING JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS PATTERN IS
TYPICAL FOR JUNE, WITH FRONTS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, EXPECT SUMMERLIKE WEATHER TO DOMINATE WITH HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACCOMPANIED BY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATE NEXT WEEK, A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, PROMOTING BROADER TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN MAY SUPPORT A MORE ORGANIZED WEATHER
SYSTEM AFFECTING THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW REGARDING
TIMING AND EVOLUTION.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
GRADUALLY THICKENED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MID-LEVEL VFR CUMULUS
LINGERING THIS EVENING. A FEW SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING
PRIMARILY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FA, MAINLY NEAR
AGS/DNL/AIK/OGB. CONVECTIVE MODELS SUGGEST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD MOVE NEAR THESE TERMINALS, WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE IS PRESENT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION, TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, LEAVING SCT CIRRUS
OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER SUNSET. BY 13Z MONDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO
5-10 KT. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL EXCEED 10 KT BY LATE MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TOWARD THE SURFACE AHEAD OF A
FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE TRIGGERED AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN, MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT
THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A STRONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
COULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/EC
AVIATION...ND
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