609
FXUS62 KCAE 221757
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE TO REFLECT THE LATEST CONVECTIVE TRENDS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN EXPECTED THIS
WEEK.
THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON IS QUICKLY BECOMING ACTIVE WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. THIS
ACTIVITY IS FORMING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FA. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY WITH THIS UPDATE AS COVERAGE IS MORE
EXTENSIVE THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THE
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK FOR TODAY MAINTAINS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS AND LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK,
FEATURING HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. BRIEF RIDGING DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY BEFORE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WEAKNESS IT. A SURGE OF MOISTURE INCREASES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LEADING TO HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. RIDGING
RETURNS AND STRENGTHENS INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PUSHING
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S, WITH SOME GLOBAL MODELS
SUGGESTING UPPER 90S POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, A FEW
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY CONTINUES WITH SCATTERED-BROKEN CU AROUND
5K FEET ACROSS THE REGION AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20
KNOTS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN GA AND
WESTERN SC, NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE FOR ANY MENTIONS BEYOND A VCSH
CURRENTLY. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR A PROB30
MENTION AFTER 00Z. MOST CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CLEAR OUT BY 06Z
WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS LIFTING AFTER. INTO TUESDAY, WINDS TURN
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY LATE MORNING, STILL GUSTY UP TO 20
KNOTS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS-STORMS AROUND.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK,
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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