116
FXUS62 KCAE 250552
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
152 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES TRENDING A BIT COOLER FRIDAY WITH HIGHER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND,
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK.
SEASONABLY HOT TODAY, ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY RETURNS. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED A BIT COOLER FOR TOMORROW WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS HEAT INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH
BUILDING UPPER RIDGING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENSEMBLE MENS
INDICATE THAT 500MB HEIGHTS WILL APPROACH 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES APPEAR TO BE KEEPING DEW POINTS
A BIT TOO HIGH COMPARED TO SOME RAW GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. RELATIVELY
HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES (AROUND 50 PERCENT OR GREATER) OF DEW POINTS
DIPPING BELOW 70F EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES
SOMEWHAT AND LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY,
ALTHOUGH WITH THE HEAT INDEX STILL EXPECTED TO APPROACH 105F EACH
AFTERNOON, HEAT WILL BE DANGEROUS AND PERSISTENT WITH STRONG
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. COMBINED WITH LITTLE OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURES AS WELL, MOST OF THE AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED IN
MAJOR HEATRISK SATURDAY THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE BEYOND MID-WEEK.
OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH MOST NOTABLE CHANCES FRIDAY AS MENTIONED EARLIER ALONG WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGING SUNDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO STRONGER STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS MOST LIKELY TO PASS NEAREST.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS NEAR AGS/OGB CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH PASSING MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY RECOVERS
THROUGH THE DAY WHERE PATCHY VSBY RESTRICTIONS FROM SHALLOW FOG
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR AGS/OGB MAINLY AFTER 08-10Z. THE LATEST
00Z HREF AND REFS PROBABILITIES FOR MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH STILL REMAIN UNDER 30%. WINDS THEN INCREASE TO NEAR 5
KTS BY THE MID MORNING, NOW OUT OF THE SOUTH, AND CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCT CUMULUS. THERE
IS THE OUTSIDE CHANCE A SPOTTY SHOWER CREEPS INTO THE FA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE TAF. WINDS THEN
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH DECAYING
CUMULUS AND PASSING CIRRUS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO
THIS WEEKEND SHOULD YIELD DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS IS FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. BRIEF MORNING VSBY
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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